I wonder. . .

[velvetpage]

Is Stephen Harper bent on ensuring that Canada goes to the polls before November fourth, specifically so that Canadians will be distracted by politics to the south? Is he trying to win by deflecting attention?

I can think of some other reasons why he'd be trying to force an election now. For one thing, the economy is on tenderhooks at best, and actively tanking in a few areas. Most of the places where it's tanking are not going to give up the vote for the Conservatives anyway, so he doesn't care much about them, beyond throwing pennies their way and siccing his finance minister on them, to tell them it's all Ontario's own fault. He doesn't want to risk the economy souring any further. And he's probably thinking that another minority with Dion running scared is a surer bet than waiting a year and trying to get a majority. The fact that he has to break his own law to force an election right now - well, that's politics, right?

In any case, I expect Harper to send us to the polls sometime around the last week of October, because he's counting on the inertia of a lack of alternatives, combined with the distraction of American politics at fever pitch, to hand him a stronger minority than he's got now. I can't see any way out of that, with Dion leading squatting in the top position in the Liberal party, and the NDP and Green parties not powerful enough to field a nationally-acceptable platform. We might be better off with Harper in a second minority position. It gives the Liberals time and incentive to get their act together, the protest vote might finally net the Greens a long-deserved seat or two, and if push comes to shove, toppling a minority government is far easier than toppling a majority one.

Comments

[daednu.livejournal.com]

I think his reasoning is threefold;
1) He doesn't want Canadians to be swept up on Obama love and vote Liberal.
2) He's getting pressure in House to call an election.
3) He wants Stephane Dion's carbon tax to nix the vote for the Liberals. Given enough time and listening to public opinion it would give the Dion the chance to realise this is not the time Canadian's will support paying extra taxes as the economy slides.

[hendrikboom.livejournal.com]

Well, he really wants to leave the impression that the carbon tax is not just a realignment of existing moneys, that gasoline is to be hit by the new tax, and that cap and trade won't affect gas prices.

[velvetpage.livejournal.com]

I don't know anyone who really understands what the new carbon tax is about, and until the Liberals improve at getting that message out, Harper is going to be successful at painting it in a negative light. Just the name is bad - a carbon tax implies a new tax, not a realignment of old taxes.