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I started following the protests in Iran, via Twitter, yesterday evening.
It's compelling.
I don't know what the truth is. It's possible this is a case of massive disconnect between rural and urban populations, between old and young. It's possible that the vote was reasonably accurate and when they recount, the result will be the same. It's also entirely possible that the vote was rigged, or that it was rigged but not enough to change the outcome. We just don't know.
Problem is that, with that many people believing the election to have been rigged and that much violence surrounding the protests, the people protesting aren't going to believe that the investigation was being up front if they find that things were done properly, anymore than the other side is going to believe that the investigation was up front if it's found that Moussavi should have won. Which means they're at an impasse.
When the protests die down, when the bureaucrats are done what they're doing, they're going to need a new election. This time, they're going to have to invite foreign observers to oversee it, like Ukraine did a few years ago when they had a similar problem.
I hope the world community is smart about this one. I hope they don't put any conditions on it beyond the safety of their people. I hope they volunteer. I hope to see pictures of former Canadian Prime Ministers on a plane to Tehran in the coming months, a Liberal and a Conservative side by side, going to support the democratic process that we do a generally good job of here. (Golf pencils and paper ballots, followed by people counting the ballots and calling the numbers in without the ballots being moved until they're counted and resealed in their boxes.)
I want the world community to insist that all Iranian votes are counted accurately, and I want them to put their money where their mouths are and oversee it, all the while recognizing that it's not their own voices being heard in Iran - it's those of Iranians.
It's compelling.
I don't know what the truth is. It's possible this is a case of massive disconnect between rural and urban populations, between old and young. It's possible that the vote was reasonably accurate and when they recount, the result will be the same. It's also entirely possible that the vote was rigged, or that it was rigged but not enough to change the outcome. We just don't know.
Problem is that, with that many people believing the election to have been rigged and that much violence surrounding the protests, the people protesting aren't going to believe that the investigation was being up front if they find that things were done properly, anymore than the other side is going to believe that the investigation was up front if it's found that Moussavi should have won. Which means they're at an impasse.
When the protests die down, when the bureaucrats are done what they're doing, they're going to need a new election. This time, they're going to have to invite foreign observers to oversee it, like Ukraine did a few years ago when they had a similar problem.
I hope the world community is smart about this one. I hope they don't put any conditions on it beyond the safety of their people. I hope they volunteer. I hope to see pictures of former Canadian Prime Ministers on a plane to Tehran in the coming months, a Liberal and a Conservative side by side, going to support the democratic process that we do a generally good job of here. (Golf pencils and paper ballots, followed by people counting the ballots and calling the numbers in without the ballots being moved until they're counted and resealed in their boxes.)
I want the world community to insist that all Iranian votes are counted accurately, and I want them to put their money where their mouths are and oversee it, all the while recognizing that it's not their own voices being heard in Iran - it's those of Iranians.